Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
