Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
